Around New England

Biden Campaign Not Planning on New Hampshire Primary Win

January 28, 2020

Former Vice President Joe Biden’s campaign is not counting on a win in the New Hampshire Democratic primary, Politico reports.

Instead, Biden’s focus is on two other early voting states:  Iowa and Nevada. That is because in New Hampshire he is facing three candidates from states that neighbor New Hampshire:  Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, and former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick.

As a result, Politico reports, the campaign’s internal polling does not favor Biden.

“The reality is New Hampshire is home court for two top-tier candidates — plus Gov. Patrick — and the last three times a neighboring state candidate has competed in New Hampshire, they won,” Steve Schale, the head of the pro-Biden super PAC, told Politico. “It’s also a very expensive and inefficient state for communicating, given 80% of state is in the Boston media market.”

According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, Sanders is projected to win New Hampshire with 27 percent of the vote while Biden is currently at 19 percent.

Schale’s organization will end up spending around $5 million to try to help Biden win the Iowa caucuses, but the organization does not have any TV ads scheduled for New Hampshire. 

Presidential candidates routinely try to lower expectations before a presidential primary so that media angle isn’t that a particular candidate didn’t do as well as predicted before the vote.