Rwandan children at Volcans National Park. (Wikipedia)
In my last article, I provided a historical perspective of the African Great Lakes region’s political dynamics, and its impact on the current political crisis aiming to affect the process of strengthening democracy in the region. I suggested policy recommendations to avert a new regional crisis and, most importantly, save democracy. These included promoting a regional diplomatic approach to mobilize all stakeholders, reminding leaders of their responsibilities, and steering the political process on a track that averts the looming crisis of regional instability, resulting from constitution terms change limits by regional head of states, and facilitates a peaceful resolution. I highlighted the economic and political importance of the diplomatic course, along with its ramifications to current and future regional and world stability.
The following week saw the U.S. Senate Sub-Committee on African Affairs hearing on the state of current U.S. policy in the Great Lakes Region. There, the U.S. Assistant Secretary on African Affairs (Linda Thomas-Greenfield) and the U.S. Special Envoy (former Virginia representative Thomas Perrielo) voiced concern for the uncertain future of democracy and freedom in the region. They reminded the panel and audience of the injurious impact of continuous, undemocratic leadership on current efforts to build institutional capacity for democracy and the rule of law. They encouraged regional leaders to be proactive in halting practices that are incompatible with democratic societies and pose a significant threat to regional stability – practices such as repeated human rights violations, intimidation and arbitrary detention of political opponents, and violation of a free press. Most importantly, they urged regional leaders to keep the best interest of their people at heart and preserve the small yet hard-fought gains in sustaining the democratic process, implementing the rule of law, and good governance in the region.
Last week saw UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon visiting Burundi and the DRC to meet with Presidents Pierre Nkurunziza and Joseph Kabila. While in Burundi, the Secretary encouraged the politicians to craft an inclusive political solution to the deadlock that follows Nkurunziza’s decision to remain in power for a previously illegal constitutional term – a decision that brings Burundi to the precipice of a new civil war whose spill-over could spark a new regional conflict. In the Congo, Ban Ki-Moon urged the Government to organize timely presidential elections and prevent new a crisis. In Goma, he conferred with civil society, local leaders and young people. In his visit to refugee camps in Kitchanga, Ban Ki-Moon helped distribute food to refugees, mostly women and children, sat in classrooms with children and requested the Congolese government not repeat the camp closure of Mokoto, where thousands were forced to leave and their huts burned. Ban Ki-Moon’s leadership should inspire the Congolese government to find a compassionate and reasonable alternative to closing the camp.
Ban Ki-Moon’s visit coincides with rising Congolese political tensions – the Congolese people remain in the dark about whether December 2016 will see them freely express their political and human right to choose their next president at the polls – and can be subscribed within the efforts of the international committee to urge Congolese leaders to heal a country and a people who have been traumatized by a long and brutal civil war, massive human rights violations, and bad leadership since independence in 1960. The UN Secretary’s visit and U.S. Senate hearing are encouraging signs of the commitment of the international community to peacefully nudge the African Great Lakes region in the right direction. They add momentum to the hope of many Africans aspiring for freedom and democracy. These efforts are promising.
However, prudence is required to overcome the many existing challenges to encouraging regional leaders to play a much more responsible and constructive role in solving these issues. For instance, the recent and continuous arrests of political opponents in Congo, the intimidation of dissenting views, and the continuous inability of the Congolese government to secure its people in the Kivu are counterproductive and harmful. The Congolese government should exhibit and encourage a climate of tolerance and understanding toward the opposition, sustain an environment where people have the security to respectfully disagree, and maintain focus on continuing to improve its delivery capacity to its people. Instead of the undemocratic political behaviors of arrests and intimidation, what is needed is creating a more inclusive political society that encourages a diverse political culture, where people’s opinions are respected and disagreements do not become the source of violent conflict but of promoting civility, noble political behavior, improving knowledge and inspiring young Africans to leadership in their local communities and greatness.
Similarly, while there might be some legitimacy in the Rwandan Government’s denial of recent allegations by the U.S Statement Department that they are recruiting Burundian refugees to possibly destabilize Burundi, the Rwandan Government’s decision to expel or relocate Burundian refugees’ camps, and inadvertently add to the trauma burden of the vulnerable victims of this turmoil, including women and children, is unhelpful to long-term regional stability. More helpful would have been Kigali listening to these allegations, proposing a united effort to verify those accusations, and if true, leading a regional effort with support from the African Union and United Nations, alongside the United States and European Union, to put end to activities that risk re-inflaming the whole region. By the same token, had the accusations proven false, it would not be lethal for the international community to apologize to the Rwandan Government. Leading diplomatic efforts to a successful conclusion requires frank and respectful discussions, not extreme political stances and breaking from dialogue. Regardless of disagreement and challenges, maintaining open lines of communication and relentlessly working toward building mutual trust constitute strong signs of a commitment to broker peace in the region, stabilize democracy and continue steering the political process in the right direction.
It is imperative to continue letting the leaders of the African Great Lakes region know the world has confidence and optimism in their leadership to do the right thing for their countries, act in the best interest of their people, and inspire young African to aspire to an honorable public service that will continue their nations on the path to prosperity and greatness. African leaders should be aware that resource-rich Africa already has the potential to take her place among the 21st century economies. The Africa Foresight 2016 report from the African Growth Initiative at the Brookings Institution, and the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate Council’s Global Trends 2025, estimate the population of the African Great Lakes region at 350 to 400 million people in the next two decades — in other words, the current size of the United States. The population of the DRC alone is projected at 120 to 150 million. Populations in the mega cities of Lagos, Cairo and Kinshasa will double to 15 million. This amplifies both opportunities and challenges. According to the African Governance Initiative, millions of jobs will be needed every year to provide opportunities to young people and sustain the growth rate. By 2035, the African Great Lakes region is projected to be one of the leading suppliers of world energy including natural gas and oil, preceded by the United States and Middle East (Energy and Security: Strategies for a world in transition by Kalicki and Goldwyn). This implies that instability in this region will have a negative impact on the world energy market and economy.
African leaders should not shrink from their responsibilities to protect Africa from squandering her future on transgenerational instability. The costs of not having a long-term and global perspective in policy decisions are very high in a world of tough economic competition and increasing insecurity. The main aim of African leaders should be an unyielding effort to put their countries on the path of economic competition with the rest of the world, not changing constitutional term limits that set their nations back. They need to craft long-term strategic policies, from the national to the regional level, that promote stability, rule of law, good governance, and economic integration, stimulate economic growth, create jobs, and improve education and healthcare of their people. One step to improve public administration would be to initiate local policy studies that can feed data-driven public policies decisions to improve efficiency and government delivery. Of course, the assistance of the international community will continue to be invaluable in addressing the many challenges the region cannot solve alone.
The world has much to lose in allowing new political crises in this region and even more to gain from stability and effective leadership. It is in our common interest to maintain order, while promoting democracy, rule of law and human freedom in this region. Let us not forget the vulnerability of young Africans to the current profusion of religious radicalism and terrorism. In the face of continued poverty and lack of access to adequate information and opportunities, young Africans are easy prey to manipulation and recruitment by terrorist movements. Under cover of the current entropy, Africa’s resources and her people will be enslaved by the recruitment and money-laundering operations of terrorist organizations. Boko Haram, El-Shahab and ISIS have already imprinted their brutality on the continent. In Nigeria, Cameroun, and Burkina Faso, hundreds of innocent people were killed in terrorist attacks in January 2016 and last year, in Garissa, Kenya. The recent report from the Tony Blair Faith Foundation Center on Religion and Geopolitics shows that Boko Haram in Nigeria, Tchad and Cameroun, ISIS in Libya and El-Shahab in the Horn of Africa pose a serious security threat to Africa and the world. Stopping this exploitation deserves the concerted attention of African leaders. Promoting selfless policy agendas, and pursuing a leadership that is relentless in improving the lives of their people, should be their priorities. They should look to Nelson Mandela for inspiration and as a role model.
Joseph Nguramo
Joseph Nguramo is a Congolese native who graduated from West Point Military Academy in 2014. He now lives in Washington, D.C., and is pursuing graduate studies. Read his first post on the African Great Lakes region here.
