We now know how many electoral votes each state will have in the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections–and the changes should help the Republican Party.
In a virtual news conference on Monday, Ron Jarmin, the U.S. Census Bureau’s acting director, announced changes to the amount of U.S. House seats that each state will have based on the 2020 U.S. Census. It will also change the electoral college map because the amount of electoral votes each state has is the amount of Congressional districts it has plus two senators. The lone exception is Washington, D.C. which is not a state and has the minimum number of electoral votes, three.
Most notably, the press conference revealed that if New York state had 89 more people, it would not have lost a seat. However, New York wasn’t the only state to lose or gain seats. Here is a look at those changes and how they may impact the next two presidential elections.
Lose
California (-1) — This is good news for Republicans. The last Republican to win this state was George H.W. Bush in 1988. Since then, the state has become more Hispanic with mass immigration, a group that primarily votes for Democrats. The state will go from having 55 electoral votes to 54.
West Virginia (-1) — This news helps Democrats. Once a deeply Democratic state, the Democratic Party’s embrace of environmentalism has hurt Democrats in coal country. It’s now an overwhelmingly Republican state, at least in presidential elections. It went from having five electoral votes to having four.
New York (-1) — This one is frustrating for Democrats. While its upstate leans Republican, New York City and its metropolitan area are heavily Democratic — so it’s a Democratic state. It was so close to keeping a congressional seat, but high taxes have driven people out of the state. New York goes from having 29 electoral votes to 28.
Illinois (-1) — Republicans should cheer for this one, too. If not for Cook County, home of Chicago, this would be a right-leaning swing state. However, throw in Chicago and the surrounding suburbs and it’s one of the more Democratic states in the country. It went from having 20 electoral votes to 19.
Ohio (-1) — This is helpful for Democrats. It’s generally a must-win swing state for Republicans, but winning it in 2020 wasn’t enough for former President Donald Trump to win the election. The fact that he won it by about eight points and still lost the election indicates that Ohio is more Republican than the average state.
Democrats can still win it. Former president Barack Obama did in 2008 and 2012. However, there are easier states for Democrats to win. It goes from having 16 electoral votes to 15.
Michigan (-1) — A competitive state, this could hurt or help either party. Republicans have only won the state once in the 21st century: Trump in 2016. However, the path for a Republican to win a national election goes through the rust belt. Michigan is slightly less Republican than Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and the GOP doesn’t necessarily need to win the state to win elections, so it may be a wash. Michigan went from having 16 electoral votes to 15.
Pennsylvania (-1) — Although it’s a swing state and Republicans have only won it once this century (2016), this hurts their case. Pennsylvania was a more-Republican-than-average state in the past two presidential elections with Trump receiving more than 48 percent of the vote. It now has 19 electoral votes, down from 20.
Gain
Texas (+2) — This is likely better news for Republicans than it is Democrats, although that could soon change. Shifting racial demographics have made Texas a more competitive state. Trump won it by fewer than six points in 2020, but it’s now a higher-stakes state. Perhaps Democrats will put more resources into it now. It went from having 38 electoral votes to 40.
Colorado (+1) — The last Republican to win Colorado was George W. Bush in 2004, so this will benefit the Democratic Party. President Joe Biden won the state by more than 13 points in 2020 That’s not a state that’s going more towards the GOP anytime soon. Colorado goes from having nine electoral votes to 10.
Oregon (+1) — Oregon is a state filled with white liberals. Democrats should cheer that it’s gaining an electoral vote. Biden won the state by more than 16 points last time around, so it is a safe Democratic state. It goes from having seven electoral votes to eight.
Florida (+1) — This helps Republicans more than it helps Democrats. If a Democrat wins Florida, that candidate most likely wins the presidential election. Trump won Florida in 2020 and didn’t end up securing a majority of electort votes.
Trump got 51 percent of the vote in Florida, an indication that it’s a more-Republican-than-average than state. Florida will have 30 electoral votes, up from 29.
Montana (+1) — The advantage goes to the Republicans. It’s generally not a competitive state and the last time Democrats won it was 1992 — which was a three-way race that included the right-leaning independent Ross Perot. Trump won it by more than 16 points in 2020. The state will have four electoral votes, up from three previously.
North Carolina (+1) — It’s a competitive state, but this probably helps Republicans. Democrats won North Carolina in 2008 and while some of the college-educated whites in the state have voted more Democratic in recent years, it’s still a more-Republican-than-average state. It goes from having 15 electoral votes to 16.
Who Benefits
At first glance, these changes look — on net — beneficial for the Republican Party. If they were in place for the 2020 presidential election, Biden still would have won, but by three fewer electoral votes. Meanwhile, Trump would have won the 2016 election by one more electoral vote, and former president Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election would have come with three fewer electoral votes.
Based on those results, the GOP, on net, is the likely beneficiary here.
