Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Leads Trump, Biden With Voters Under 45 In Key Battleground States, Poll Shows

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Who do younger voters in key battleground states prefer in a hypothetical re-election matchup:  former President Donald Trump or current President Joe Biden?

The answer, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released this week, is neither.

Focusing on six battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — it found that voters between 18 and 44 years old prefer someone else:  environmental lawyer and anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is currently running as an independent.

In those six states, 32 percent of voters under 45 said they would vote for RFK Jr. if the election were held now. Given the poll’s 1.8 percent margin of error, this finding gives him a narrow lead in this demographic over President Biden (30 percent) and former President Trump (29 percent), who were statistically tied.

“It is noteworthy that among voters under 45 in those six states, RFK polls at 32%, Biden at 30% and Trump is at 29%,” Dr. Don Levy, director of the Siena College Research Institute, said in a press release from the college. “Overall, while 18% of Democrats and 16% of Republicans say they would back RFK, 39% of independents would back Kennedy, compared to 28% for Biden and 25% for Trump.”

Overall, Trump led the poll with 35 percent support, while Biden was a close second at 33 percent; meanwhile, Kennedy had 24 percent support among registered voters in those six key swing states. While Kennedy had 34 percent support from voters under 30, his support dipped to 31 percent among voters between 30 and 44, 20 percent among those between 45 and 64, and 17 percent among those 65 and older.

Fewer than 1 percent of voters said they supported another candidate. Also, 2 percent said they would not vote for anyone, and 6 percent were undecided or refused to say who they support.

Last April, Kennedy announced that he would seek the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination in 2024, primarying President Biden. However, Kennedy ditched those plans last month and is now running as an independent.

Kennedy has expressed positions that appeal to people on both the left and right during his bid. He supports the Green New Deal, single-payer health care, and reparations for slavery, opposes males in women’s sports and coronavirus vaccines. However, Kennedy’s anti-vaccine activism goes beyond coronavirus; he chairs Children’s Health Defense, an organization that claims vaccines cause autism, which medical researchers reject.

The last time someone running as something other than a Democrat or Republican won electoral votes in a presidential election occurred in 1968 when then-segregationist George Wallace of the American Independent Party won five southern states.

The Kennedy campaign could not be reached for comment on Wednesday or Thursday.


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