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A new poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris holding a 9-point lead over former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race in New Hampshire.
Harris leads Trump 50 percent to 41 percent in the Granite State, with 6 percent of voters undecided and no other candidate receiving more than 1 percent, according to a poll conducted by the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion and YouGov; the poll surveyed 600 likely voters in New Hampshire.
"These results are good news for the Harris campaign," Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, an assistant professor of political science at UMass Lowell and the assistant director of the Center for Public Opinion, said in the press release. "New Hampshire is a crucial state on her path to securing 270 electoral votes, and her campaign appears to be on the right track in this state."
The poll found a wide favorability gap between the two candidates. While 40 percent of respondents view Trump favorably and 55 percent unfavorably, Harris enjoys a 50 percent favorable rating, with 43 percent of voters viewing her unfavorably.
Democrats have won every presidential election in New Hampshire since 2004. That means Trump is likely headed for his third straight loss in the Granite State.
Conversely, a recent UMass Lowell poll for Pennsylvania was much tighter.
There, Harris holds a narrow one-point lead over Trump, with 46 percent support compared to Trump's 45 percent. Since both polls have a 4.83 percent margin of error, that makes Pennsylvania a statistical tie.
Another matchup UMass Lowell polled is also a statistical tie: the New Hampshire governor's race.
In the governor's race between former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-New Hampshire) and former Manchester mayor Joyce Craig, a Democrat, Ayotte holds 42 percent of the vote, while Craig, has 41 percent. Libertarian candidate Stephen Villee is at 3 percent support, and 14 percent of voters remain undecided.
"Even though the presidential race isn't close, it's sucking up all the attention in New Hampshire," UMass Lowell political science associate professor John Cluverius, Center for Public Opinion director of survey research and associate director, said in the press release. "With so little time left in the governor's race, almost one in seven voters is undecided. Ayotte is well known, but Craig needs to convert undecided Harris voters to secure a win."
This is Trump's third straight election running for president. Along with running mate J.D. Vance, a U.S. senator from Ohio, Trump is facing off against the Democratic ticket, which consists of Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.
FiveThirtyEight says Harris is a slight favorite to win the 2024 election, based on the polls; it says she wins the election in 52 percent of its simulations, while Trump wins it in 48 percent of them.
Conversely, the oddsmakers tell a different story.
Oddsmakers like Betfair, Betsson, Bovada, Bwin, Points Bet, Polymarket, and Smarkets each have Trump as the favorite to win the election; the RealClearPolitics average of betting odds data gives Trump has a 58.1 percent chance of winning the election, while Harris gets a 40.4 percent chance.
Voters are set to decide the 2024 presidential election and New Hampshire race for governor on Tuesday, November 5.
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