Around New England

Sabato’s Crystal Ball Changes New Hampshire POTUS Election Forecast

August 9, 2024

Former President Donald Trump probably won’t win New Hampshire this upcoming November, according to one election forecaster.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball recently changed three of its electoral college projections, including the one for New Hampshire. It changed New Hampshire from leans Democratic to likely Democratic, Minnesota from leans Democratic to likely Democratic, and Georgia from leans Republican to toss-up.

The reason? The forecaster thinks Vice President Kamala Harris is a stronger candidate than incumbent President Joe Biden.

“In any case, it appears that at least in the short term, Harris has reversed the slippage — or has at least been able to stop the bleeding — that Democrats have seen since the Biden-Trump debate in June,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball wrote. “Looking nationally, Harris currently leads in all national polling aggregators. When Biden left the race, he was generally polling behind Trump. Harris making the race into more of a 50-50 proposition means we should adjust our own ratings to better reflect the state of the race.”

Democrats have carried New Hampshire in every presidential election since 2004.

New to NewBostonPost? Conservative media is hard to find in Massachusetts. But you’ve found it. Now dip your toe in the water for two bucks — $2 for two months. And join the real revolution.